Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
